Market Moves: November

We review November’s market moves and its key drivers. With the XJO representing the top 200 ASX-listed stocks and forming the basis for many passive ETFs, we delve into the movements within this index. Additionally, as the XJO is the most actively traded options series, we examine market positioning as we head into December.

Table of Contents

Key Drivers

The S&P/ASX 200 experienced a volatile and ultimately challenging month in November 2025, declining approximately 3% to close around 8,614 by month’s end. Starting from an all-time high of 9,115 in mid-October, the index pulled back sharply by 7.7% to a low of 8,383 in late November — its deepest correction since April — before a partial rebound in the final week. Despite the downturn, the year-to-date gain held at about 5.6%, buoyed by earlier strength in resources and defensive plays.

November’s performance was shaped by macroeconomic headwinds, corporate developments, and sector rotations. Here’s a breakdown:

Global Tech Sell-Off and AI Bubble Fears: A major drag came from the technology sector, which plunged 17-18% for the month, with heavy losses accelerating mid-November. Nvidia’s anticipated earnings initially sparked anxiety about overvalued AI stocks, leading to a 6% sector drop on November 18 alone. Technology One cratered 17.2% after missing revenue guidance, while Block and WiseTech saw volatile swings (e.g., Block +10.9% on November 20 post-Nvidia beat).

Hotter-Than-Expected Inflation and RBA Rate Hike Speculation: Australia’s first full monthly CPI (October data, released November 26) showed headline inflation at 3.8% year-on-year (above 3.6% consensus), with the RBA’s trimmed-mean measure at 3.0%—its first rise since late 2022. This dimmed hopes for RBA easing, fueling fears of hikes in 2026. This put pressure on the banks.

Commodity and Resource Rebounds: Materials (+2-3% late-month) provided a counterbalance, up 23% YTD, led by gold miners (index +109% YTD on bullion highs above $4,165/oz). BHP (+2% on November 26)

Overall Market Moves

United States

The S&P 500 eked out a modest 0.2% gain, while the Nasdaq declined 1.5%. Healthcare led with a 9.3% surge—its best monthly performance in three years—amid sector rotation and strong earnings beats, fueled by dovish Fed signals lifting December rate-cut odds above 80%. Tech underperformed with a 4.4% drop on AI valuation worries and profit-taking, adding volatility alongside a U.S. government shutdown threat.

Europe

STOXX 600: –0.5% Basic resources and technology lagged on weak commodity prices and U.S. AI spillover. Healthcare edged higher on strong results (e.g., Novo Nordisk, Coloplast). Defence stocks swung sharply on Ukraine/Russia headline noise. Overall sentiment remained cautious amid elevated valuations and global risk-off tones.

Asia-Pacific

China (CSI 300): –0.6% | Shanghai Composite: –0.8% Tech and property sectors weighed heavily; China Vanke’s liquidity crisis deepened real-estate gloom. Early-month stimulus optimism faded, and services PMI hit a 5-month low.
Japan (Nikkei 225): –4.0% | TOPIX: –0.8% Worst November for the Nikkei since 2011. Heavy selling in tech (SoftBank –10%) and AI-related names on global bubble fears; rising JGB yields and BOJ hike speculation added pressure. Late recovery on Fed cut hopes softened the blow.
Hong Kong (Hang Seng): –1.5% Mainland-linked property and tech dragged; tariff concerns and fading China stimulus momentum kept buyers on the sidelines.

Moves in the XJO

Light and Wonder surged ahead after reporting very strong Q3 results. After large falls in October, CSL saw gains in November, mainly from bargain hunters. NST, PLS and EVN all gained on gains in Gold and Lithium prices.

CBA and NAB struggled to hang onto their lofty prices tags. BHP saw selling with its dispute with China dragging on.

Table 1. Key index points contributors to the XJO

Sector Moves

At a sector level, Healthcare was a standout this month with Materials supported by rises in commodity prices. Information Technology, industrials and Financials contributed to the broader index overall decline.

Figure 2. Sector moves for the month of November

Table 2. Option position summary of the five largest traded options series at the end of November (Source: ASX)

NOTE: Option Volumes in the above table are single-sided (i.e. on a per contract basis) excluding Market Makers

1. Total Volume including volume executed by Market Makers 2 Derivatives Liquidity Ratio (DLR) = options volume (in shares) / volume of underlying security

2. Put/Call Ratio: total volume of Puts excluding Market Makers / total volume of Calls

3. The net calls & net puts are the number of options contracts bought minus the number of options contracts sold, excluding Market Makers

Options Moves

The S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO) saw investors protecting portfolios by purchasing puts, with fewer selling calls for income.

XJO (SPI 200 Index) dominated with 13.4% of total volume.. The much higher number of Puts is likely to reflect heavy macro hedging amid late-month volatility (inflation surprise, Fed/RBA policy shifts).
BHP led single stocks (7.9% market share), with volume 2.2x open interest, highlights new positioning. Strong put/call skew (60.4%) and the selling of calls (-1,589 calls, -470 puts) suggests traders looking for additional income after gains.
PLS (Pilbara Minerals) saw very high share volume (684m) and the much higher number of sold calls also suggest traders looking for additional income with speculation the stock may have peaked. Net put buying (+1,538) also suggest traders are either protecting their gains or seeking to profit on a fall in the stock price.
ANZ had balanced put/call (54.5%) indicating caution or a little indecision on the next move.
WOW’s higher sold calls also suggest traders seeking additional income after strong gains.

Popular trades for the month:

Selling APA and buying AMC.

APA had a very solid run over the last 12 months and has been at the top of its target range.
While APA’s infrastructure markets are attractive, shareholder value creation may be limited due to project timing, risk-adjusted returns, and the rising cost of capital.

This provided the opportunity to take profits or trim and switch into the more attractive APA.

APAs summary investment thesis:

Trading on a P/E of around 9.4X with a dividend of 4.5%
1Q Earning per share was ahead of consensus expectations
acquisition of Berry is delivering both revenue and cost savings.
Upside to average consensus is 25%

Moves Ahead for December

Key Opportunities:

Seasonal Tailwinds: Historical data shows 70-80% win rate for ASX gains from Dec 16-24; supports rebound to 8,850-8,900 if 8,383 holds, driven by year-end positioning.

Relative Value Play: ASX trades at 18.2x forward P/E (5.7% discount to globals), with 7.8% earnings growth forecast for 2026—attractive vs. US highs; favours diversified portfolios.

Resource Rebound: Commodities (gold >$4,165/oz, lithium highs) boost materials (+2% late Nov); energy transition demand supports BHP, PLS amid China recovery.

Key Risks

RBA Policy Tightening: Hotter inflation and resilient GDP reduce easing odds; economists flag “imminent” hike risks, potentially to 4.10% in 2026, pressuring rate-sensitive banks and property (down 7.6% in Nov).
Global Spillover and Volatility: US Fed uncertainty (86% Dec cut odds, but shutdown threats), AI bubble fears, and geopolitical tensions (Ukraine, tariffs) could trigger risk-off moves; ASX tech already lags Wall Street.
Domestic Vulnerabilities: ASX outages erode trust in tech infrastructure; high household debt and per-capita GDP stagnation (flat QoQ) heighten default risks in consumer discretionary and leveraged sectors.
Valuation Pressures: Top-heavy index (banks/tech at 25x P/E) vulnerable to earnings downgrades; resources face commodity swings if China stimulus fades.

Further Information

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